One, at the end of January 2023, the Basin States are expected to submit a new plan to the federal government, who is undertaking a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) process under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), for reducing water use by 2-4 million acre feet," Koebele said. Which lets just call it now is highly unlikely. Its water levels are rapidly declining, edging closer and closer to deadpool level. Its still far below the surface, but as the water levels fall light is reaching the plane for the first time in decades, 8NewsNow reported. Virginia: Financial statements are available from the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, 102 Governor Street, Richmond, Virginia 23219. The most probable forecast in May suggests we could be in a Tier 2B shortage next year one that will force more painful actions in cities like Scottsdale and Tucsonand a first-ever contribution from California, which already is taking more than its full Colorado River allocation in 2022 to limp through another year with an extremely stressedState Water Project. Dr. Joellen Russell, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Arizona and member of the group Science Moms, told Newsweek: "Lake Mead is more than 180 feet below its "full level" and hasn't been close to full since 1999. The park is actively evaluating the long-term implications of ongoing historic drought on recreational infrastructure and analyzing the most accurate scientific data available to make the best decisions possible. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about Lake Mead? "Today the water uses allowed by law are more than the river gets in an average year, so until the rules are changed it is unlikely the reservoirs will fill.". The latter will be used to determine which level of shortage were in. The lake, a reservoir of the Colorado River, formed by the Hoover Dam, provides water to 25 million people in California, Nevada and Arizona, but it has been facing the effects of an ongoing megadrought. This is due to recent heavy rainfall and winter storms that swept across Nevada and the neighboring states. The lake has a surface area of 247.1 square miles and spans the Nevada-Arizona border, providing 25 million people across Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah with water. Solid lines represent historical elevations (black), and median projected elevations for the scenario (yellow). If thats the case, there could be a mounting discrepancy between actual lake levels and what were doing to protect them, which wont serve us well in the long run. Pennsylvania: The official registration and financial information of National Parks Traveler may be obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of State by calling 800-732-0999. Data from current condition sites are relayed to the Nevada Water . Tribes, cities and farmers across Arizonahave volunteered about 214,000 acre-feet this year. Hemenway Harbor will operate on one lane of concrete; pipe mat extension will be installed at 1,064 feet elevation. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. "There's been a good start to the snowfall season, but it is way too early to know what runoff will look like," she said. - Hundreds of firefighters scrambled Monday to prevent a wildfire engulfing an area of rare giant sequoia trees in California's Yosemite National Park. At the same time in 2021, the water levels were at 1,067 feet, while in 2020. Notably, exceptional drought the worst designation expanded in California from nearly zero coverage to 11% of the state. Last spring, the Bureau of Reclamation announced an unprecedented strategy to boost water levels in Lake Powell and maintain electricity production from the Glen Canyon Dam, including releasing more water from smaller, upstream reservoirs while withholding water in Lake Powell itself instead of sending it downstream to Lake Mead. NV As the drought has gone on for so long, despite the rain giving respite to Lake Mead's water levels, it will take a lot more wet weather to fix the problem. CNN The water level in Lake Mead the nation's largest reservoir dropped below 1,050 feet elevation for the first time last week, a critical milestone that signals more stringent. But the Lake's water levels have risen slightly recently, from 1,044 feet at the end of 2022, to 1,045 feet at the beginning of 2023. All Rights Reserved. All rights reserved. Please refer to this discussion of uncertainty for more information. Lake Mead's "bathtub ring" is set to become even more pronounced this year. It was formed with the creation of the Hoover Dam, which submerged St Thomas, a Mormon settlement founded in 1865. As the drought has deepened, Lake Meads water level dropped below 1,050 feet elevation for the first time last week a sign more stringent water cuts are coming for the Southwest. It would take several years of much-above average snowpack (unlikely given the warming temperatures), combined with drastically less water usage to let Lake Mead begin to fill again.". More human remains were discovered at Lake Mead, unprecedented strategy to boost water levels, California is in a water crisis, yet usage is way up. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. "But what happens during drought is that the rains that would refill this groundwater end up just refilling the dry root zone and either delaying or preventing recharging of the groundwater system that supplies streams and reservoirs.". According to BOR's March 2022 24-month forecast, water levels at Lake Mead will drop earlier-than-expected. Part of the agreement to leave water in Lake Powell was that when it came time to declare a shortage, that water would be counted as if it were in Lake Mead. Sunken boat from second world war and at least three sets of human remains found in largest US reservoir and more could follow. As it continues, weather patterns are becoming harder to predict, meaning people are using the water faster than it can be replenished. More extreme water cuts are all but certain in the Southwest starting next year including new water cuts for California according to the latest government forecast for the Colorado River and Lake Mead, the countrys largest reservoir. However, boaters should expect higher congestion at these locations. If you love this content (or love to hate it hey, I won't judge),why not subscribe to get more? Georgia: A full and fair description of the programs and financial statement summary of National Parks Traveler is available upon request at the office and phone number indicated above. That . If the forecast indicates Lake Mead's water level will be below 1,050 feet come January 1, the Southwest will move into the second tier of unprecedented water cuts that will deepen the. The Colorado River irrigates farms, powers electric grids and provides drinking water for 40 million people. In the worst-case-scenario, the. During this time, areas saw more than a half inch of rain in just 10 minutes, the Las Vegas Review Journal reported at the time. Granted, there is a chance, albeit a diminishing one, that we could narrowly avoid a Tier 2B declaration. Lake Mead, which provides water to roughly 25 million people in Arizona, Nevada, California and Mexico, is losing water at an alarming rate amid an extraordinary, multi-year drought made worse by the climate crisis. Lake Mead's water levels have risen slightly with an influx of heavy rainfall, but will that be enough to save the rapidly drying up reservoir? There tends to be plenty of stuff that goes to the bottom and you just wait around, Green said. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. Water level status projections from the BOR's March 2022 Most Probable Inflow 24-Month Study: The current water elevation for end of March is 1,063.11 feet. A Warner Bros. The latest forecast would suggest that California, Arizona, Nevada and Mexico would see even more significant cuts to their Colorado River water starting in January, and without a couple of blockbuster winters with lots of rain and snow more severe cuts the following year that would stretch into household and industrial use. The NPS recognizes the important role that launch ramps and marinas play in the economies of gateway communities and the numerous businesses that operate in the parks, and robust civic and stakeholder engagement will be a part of longer-term planning. appreciated. Select the date (a new window will open): January 2012 April 2012 August 2012 January 2013 April 2013 August 2013 January 2014 April 2014 August 2014 January 2015 April 2015 August 2015 January 2016 April 2016 August 2016 January 2017 April 2017 August 2017 January 2018 April 2018 August 2018 January 2019 June 2019 August 2019 February 2020 April 2020 August 2020 January 2021 April 2021 June 2021 August 2021 January 2022 February 2022 May 2022. But in consecutive La Nina years there is a very clear trend toward drier years. The projection for the end of July this year is 1,046 feet. Your effort and contribution in providing this feedback is much On December 1, 2022, the lake's water levels were 1,042.97 feet above sea level, while as of February 1, 2023, they measured 1,046.99 feet. One of the towns final residents left in 1938 when waters reached his front door, according to the Deseret News. Because the lake is V-shaped, and were getting into the lower part of the V, it takes less water to make more of an elevation change. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. Scientists are putting it mainly down to human-driven climate change. Lake Mead is a not natural body of water, Green points out. Even a few really wet years probably wouldn't refill the reservoirs, given how low they are and how temperatures continue to rise (causing more evapotranspiration)," Koebele said. Experts believe only a change in water policy can contribute to saving the lake. The U.S. Drought Monitor has changed Nevada's status 0 percent in an exceptional drought, due to the rainfall. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. If it reaches this point, the lake, which provides electricity to thousands of people, will reach a dire point. The lake's water levels have risen slightly. Koebele said there are policies being put in place such as the Drought Contingency Plan. Importantly, the Bureau of Reclamations studies are based on historical data from the 1990s a much wetter period in the West, said Eric Kuhn, a retired former manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District. Previous Bureau of Recreation (BOR) projections anticipated this lake level drop happening in May, but the most recent projections suggest it will occur sooner. "Two, many of the current policies that govern Colorado River allocations, including the DCP and other shortage-sharing guidelines, expire in 2026, so the states and federal government are simultaneously beginning a process to develop rules for the next 20 years of Colorado River management that can help mitigate some of these issues. The lake is predicted to reach an even lower level in the coming months: projections from the Bureau of Reclamation show that Lake Mead could drop as low as 1,024.47 feet by November 2023. #ColoradoRiver #drought pic.twitter.com/g2F9lCXbfw. Federal officials have a sobering forecast for the Colorado River Basin: Lake Mead, the nations largest reservoir which serves millions of people in the Southwest, will likely drop another 12 feet by this fall. It puts Mead a few inches above the trigger elevation of 1,045 feet in August, when the . It stands today at its lowest level since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president. Launch ramps at Temple Bar and Boulder Harbor will remain closed. 2. To be notified when updated projections are available, please email ColoradoRiverModeling@usbr.gov with Add Me as the subject. Hemenway Harbor will operate on one lane of concrete; pipe mat extension will be installed at 1,064 feet elevation. On February 1 in 2022 and 2021, respectively, the water levels were at 1,067.14 and 1,086.1 feet above sea level. Large amounts of water are required not only to refill surface reservoirs like Lake Mead, but to replenish the arid groundwater supplies. Yes, we had very, very low runoff this year, Aaron said. Lake Powell and Lake Mead operations are modeled as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for Lake Powell operating tier and condition determination purposes for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. The Las Vegas region cut per-person use by 47% between 2002 and 2020, to about 112 gallons, while its population grew by 52%. The state saw a particularly wet monsoon season at the end of July and into August, meaning the river filled slightly. Federal officials make those determinations on a year-by-year basis in August. By January 18, Lake Mead's water levels have risen to 1,045.76 feet. The forecast is . There is some opportunity for the Colorado River to pick up more inflow between Lake Powell and Lake Mead, from springs and small creeks in the Grand Canyon but drought and climate change have been reducing these flows, as well. The Lake hadn't reached such a low level since it was constructed in the 1930s. Thats 18 feet past the deepest level of shortage for which weve plannedand 13 feet below its last major defense point before the lake completely tanks. Previous tables (starting in January 2012) are also available. Lake Meads plummeting water level has become more apparent over the past year. Water Quality Current Conditions Table. So, the rain has undoubtedly been a welcome water source for the lake. The disruption in society will beunprecedented. In August, the bureau predicted the reservoir would most likely be at 1,059 feet at the end of this month, and 1,057 feet at worst. The full Colorado River system supplies water to 40 million people in seven western states as well as Mexico, and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland from Wyoming to the Gulf of California. Results from CRMMS run with ESP are referred to as CRMMS-ESP. Projection for end of October 2022 is 1,047.47 feet. Projected water levels are provided typically on the 15th of each month by the. Now, keep in mind: That 1,007-foot prediction is in whats called the minimum probable forecast, not the comparably rosiermost probable forecast that Reclamation typically uses to declare shortages and take other official actions. CNN Sans & 2016 Cable News Network. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. The bureau's 24-month study shows that Lake Mead is headed 26 feet lower a year from now. But there arent just bodies in the water that comes in from the Colorado River, and experts say as the bathtub ring around the lake grows, more discoveries are waiting. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. Projection for end of April 2022 is 1,057.14 feet. Information from NOAA-GLERL. The March 2022 forecast estimates are . But she also pointed more generally to the Southwests worsening drought, which has increased the amount of water agriculture is pulling from the Colorado River. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 will result in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with routine operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. However, due to a combination of prolonged drought over the last two decades, increasing aridification from climate change, and a set of historical laws that has promoted overuse of Colorado River water in the Lower Basin, both reservoirs are at their lowest levels since being constructed.". Colorado River System Projections Overview, probabilistic results for the 2-year period, 2022 Glen Canyon Dam operational adjustment, Equalization Tier (Powell >= Equalization [EQ] Elevation), Upper Elevation Balancing Tier (Powell < EQ Elevation and >= 3,575 ft), Upper Elevation Balancing - annual release > 8.23 maf, Upper Elevation Balancing - annual release = 8.23 maf, Upper Elevation Balancing - annual release < 8.23 maf, Mid-Elevation Release Tier (Powell < 3,575 and >= 3,525 ft), Mid-Elevation Release - annual release = 8.23 maf, Mid-Elevation Release - annual release = 7.48 maf, Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (Powell < 3,525 ft), Lower Elevation Balancing - annual release > 8.23 maf, Lower Elevation Balancing - annual release < 8.23 maf, Surplus Condition - any amount (Mead >= 1,145 ft), Normal Year or ICS Surplus Condition (Mead < 1,145 and > 1,075 ft), Recovery of DCP ICS / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead >/>= 1,110 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead <= 1,090 and > 1,075 ft), Shortage Condition - any amount (Mead <= 1,075 ft), Shortage / Reduction - 1st Level (Mead <= 1,075 and >= 1,050 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead <= 1,075 and >= 1,050 ft), Shortage / Reduction - 2nd Level (Mead < 1,050 and >= 1,025 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead < 1,050 and > 1,045 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead <= 1,045 and > 1,040 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead <= 1,040 and > 1,035 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead <= 1,035 and > 1,030 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead <= 1,030 and >=/> 1,025 ft), Shortage / Reduction - 3rd Level (Mead < 1,025 ft), DCP Contribution / Mexicos Water Savings (Mead
