That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Heres a bomb to right-center. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. Chicago Cubs. He went second to home on a single. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Just like I wanted to see one in there. . Jason Heyward. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. His average ranking is 7.5. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. This group also aged incredibly well. Forget about everything else. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All he needs to do is stay healthy. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. Thats just how it goes. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. These were the players remaining. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. by Handedness, Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency, Effectively Wild Episode 761: An Offseason Friday Gallimaufry, The Best of FanGraphs: November 2-6, 2015. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Adding in 23 steals on 26 attempts and the rest of his baserunning, Heywards 22 runs above average on offense placed him within the top quarter of qualified hitters. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. So how did he end up with some of the best non-stolen-base baserunning numbers in the game? 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Perhaps rightfully so. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The team is confident in . There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. by Retrosheet. He hit 27 home runs in 2012, but recorded just 13 of them this year along with an isolated slugging percentage of .146, essentially league average. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Heres a bomb to right. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .260/.335/.406 for a 96 wRC+ He seemed. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. His 2012 projections are strong May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves.
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